Sunday night’s AFC North Division championship game was one of the best football games I can remember. If the Steelers don’t win on Monday night, then it’s just a nice memory in an otherwise mediocre season. The game had everything: blown coverages, terrible coaching decisions, passes behind the line of scrimmage; it was a classic Steelers victory.
It’s certainly true that the Steelers are the best team in their division; they are worthy champions, and they have the T-shirts and hats to prove it. It’s also true that this division was bad with a capital B. Cleveland is Cleveland, Cincinnati’s franchise quarterback was hurt for more than half of the season, and Baltimore was coached by Baltimore Tomlin AND missed their MVP quarterback for a significant portion of the season. They still took care of business, even when they didn’t. The three wins in a row late in the season at Baltimore, home against Miami, and at Detroit were impressive, the loss at Cleveland was deflating, and the dramatic win against Baltimore has given Steelers nation amnesia. People have forgotten that Tomlin has consistently disappointed, and a single win shouldn’t erase that memory.
Houston is good but beatable, except for the last nine games, which they have won. If the Steelers stand a chance, they need to move the ball down the field and stop throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. Rodgers had 15 pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage on Sunday night. He’s also targeted receivers under 10 yards downfield 71.5% of the time, which is the lowest in three years for a starting quarterback. This, according to SI, according to NFL Pro. They also need to protect old ass Aaron Rodgers, he’s clearly banged up, everyone is at this time of year, but he’s old and crunchy. He has also shown happy feet and a penchant to get rid of the ball very quickly, shades of Kenny Pickett. Houston has an awesome pass rush, ranking fourth in the NFL in total sacks. The Steelers need to utilize DK Metcalf. Adding Metcalf back into the mix gives me some confidence in the offense, but I am very worried. Art Smith hasn’t schemed anyone open all season. You see it weekly where Rodgers runs around for ten minutes, and still nobody is open. I worry that Houston’s defense is going to give the Steelers offense fits. They aren’t going to win this game on offense; they can win it on defense.
Houston is bad on third down, and the Steelers need to make sure that they hold on Monday night. The Texans are bottom three of playoff teams for third-down conversion rate at 37%. CJ Stroud is not necessarily turnover-prone, but if you can get to the QB, they can’t really protect the ball from Herbig and Watt, and Highsmith. Herbig and Highsmith played amazingly last week, and Watt was coming off a COLLAPSED FUCKING LUNG, so he should be in better shape in his second game back.
If the Steelers win on Monday, it will be because the defense stepped up and made plays, either scoring or creating short fields for the offense. The Steelers always win on Monday night at home; this game will not be any different. Protect Rodgers, get the ball down the field, and get to the Texans with the pass rush, and they win somewhat easily. Steelers win 24-17.